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Nuwe mielie-liggingsdifferensiale kom as ‘n skok
“Die nuut afgekondigde liggingsdifferensiale vir mielies het as ʼn groot skok vir mielieprodusente gekom”, sê mnr Jannie de Villiers, Hoofbestuurder van Graan SA.
Gemiddeld is die differensiaal vir die ongeveer 183 silo’s met 28% verhoog, maar die individuele aanpassings wisseltussen -19% (R-21/ton) en 68% (R161/ton).
Die liggingsdifferensiaal het ‘n direkte invloed op die SAFEX-afgeleide prys by ʼn spesifieke leweringspunt (silo). Omdat die SAFEX-afgeleide prys die verwysingsprys vir pryse in die kontantmark is, het hierdie aanpassing ʼn dramatiese effek op die prys wat mielieboere, veral in verafgeleë gebiede, vir hulle mielies kan beding.
Die JSE het in sy berekeninge van die differensiale gepoog om die werklike vervoerkoste, gebaseer op ʼn geweegdegemiddelde tussen spoor- en padvervoer, vanaf die spesifieke lokaliteit tot by Randfontein te bepaal. In die verlede is die vorige seisoen se differensiaal as vertrekpunt gebruik en is ʼn persentasie aanpassing daarop toegepas. Die enigste geluk is dat die nuutste brandstofpryse nog nie bekend was toe die JSE die berekeninge gedoen het nie.
Mnr De Villiers sê verder dat indien ʼn normale vervoerinflasiesyfer, gebaseer op kostestygings in die vervoerbedryf, as aanpassing gebruik sou word, ʼn 11%-verhoging waarskynlik geregverdig sou kon word. Dit sou ʼn gemiddelde verhoging van R16 per ton in plaas van die aangekondigde R41per ton tot gevolg gehad het. Die afgekondigde differensiaal gaan produsente R4,51 miljoen meer uit die sak jaag. Deel van die kostestyging is ‘n direkte resultaat van die swak vervoerinfrastruktuur in Suid-Afrika. Die persentasie graan wat per spoor vervoer word daal jaarliks weens kapasiteitsprobleme by Transnet. Padvervoer is in sommige gevalle tot 30% duurder as spoorvervoer. “Dit is jammer dat die produsente alleen nou vir die oneffektiwiteit moet opdok”, sê mnr. de Villiers. Die effek op individuele produsente in gebiede waar die differensiaal met meer as 40% gestyg het, kan so erg wees dat dit ʼn verskil tussen finansiële oorlewing al dan nie kan maak.
“Dit is jammer dat die JSE besluit het om hierdie 'regstelling' in die liggingsdifferensiale as een stap te doen eerder as om dit in te faseer”, het mnr. De Villiers gesê.
7 April 2011
BOTHAVILLE
NAVRAE:
Mnr. Jannie de Villiers
Hoofbestuurder
056 515 2145
Mnr. Nico Hawkins
Bestuurder: Bedryfsbediening
056 515 2145
New maize location differentials come as a shock
“The newly announced location differentials for maize came as a great shock for maize producers”, said Mr Jannie de Villiers, CEO of Grain SA.
On average, the location differential for the approximately 183 silos increased by 28%, but individual adjustments vary from -19% (-R21/tonne) to 68% (R161/tonne).
The location differential has a direct effect on the SAFEX derived price for a specific delivery point (silo). Since theSAFEX derived price is the reference figure for prices in the cash market, the adjustment will have a dramatic effect on the price that maize producers, especially those in remote areas, can negotiate for their maize.
The JSE, in their calculation, attempted to measure the actual transport costs (based on a weighted average between rail and road) from the specific locality to Randfontein. In the past, the previous season’s differential was used as a point of departure and a percentage adjustment was made. Fortunately the latest fuel prices were not yet known when the JSE did their calculations.
Mr. de Villiers further said that if a normal transport inflation figure,based on cost escalation in the transport industry, had been used in the calculations, an increase of 11% probably could have been justified. This would have caused an increase of R16 per tonne instead of the announced R41 per tonne. The announced differential will cost producers R4,51 million more. Part of these costs is a direct result of the poor transport infrastructure in South Africa. The percentage of grain transported by rail shows an annual decrease because of the capacity problem faced by Transnet. Road transport is in some cases 30% more expensive than rail transport. "It is unfortunate that the producer now has to pay for this ineffectiveness", said Mr. de Villiers. In areas where the differential increased by more than 40%, the financial survival of individual producers could be in the balance.
“It is unfortunate that the JSE has decided to make this adjustment to the location differential in one go rather than phasing it in”, said Mr. de Villiers.
7 April 2011
BOTHAVILLE
ENQUIRIES:
Mr. Jannie de Villiers
CEO
056 515 2145
Mr. Nico Hawkins
Manager: Industry Services
056 515 2145
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